In this particular Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita Park, the 10th time the famed track has hosted the championships, California-based horses may have a decided advantage over shippers, say the analysts who will carry NBC’s coverage Friday and Saturday.
In a media teleconference this week, the trio of Randy Moss, Jerry Bailey and Eddie Olczyk discussed a number of Breeders’ Cup topics, including how a highly scrutinized Santa Anita dirt surface will play now that it’s appearing deeper than in years past. "I think they’re so concerned right now primarily, as they should be, with horse safety, going into this Breeders’ Cup,” Moss said, “that I would be surprised if they make any substantial changes for this weekend to tighten it up. They’ve added cushion to it. They’ve made it deeper. They’ve made it a little more forgiving to try to prevent some of these catastrophic injuries that have happened at Santa Anita.”
Through last weekend’s races pace types are winning the majority of races. Anecdotally, a number of trainers have made remarks recently that to win over this dirt, you need a runner in the first flight of horses.
Of course, it’s up to the handicapper to weigh the merits of the bias and apply it to Breeders’ Cup races that will stretch from six furlongs to 1 ¼ miles over the main Santa Anita track.
“The way the racetrack is playing in general, speed versus come-from-behinders, but also more specifically how the eastern-based horses are handling deeper surface in California is going to be a huge storyline,” Moss said, “because there are eastern trainers that are concerned that their horses won’t handle the surface as well as the California horses that have been out here and that have gotten accustomed to it. And there are California trainers that we’ve talked to that think that they may have a pretty significant home track advantage, even more so than usual.
“So we’ll be watching that right off the bat on Friday.”
Olczyk, expert on both hockey and horses, said handicappers have the opportunity “to go to school” in regard to how the surface is playing.
“If you see that one specific angle on a particular track or the distance or if there’s an opportunity to have it weighted in your favor,” he added, “then as a handicapper you’re going to certainly look to horses that are either front runners or just off the pace. That’s what handicapping is -- having a feel and having an idea how the race is going to be run before the race runs and then try to figure out and do a process of elimination.
“So (it’s) something keeping a very close eye on from a distance, but even more so to when we get to Friday and see how the track is playing and then obviously getting into the big day on Saturday.”
In regard to Breeders’ Cup events on the Santa Anita turf, Moss said there’s less concern about shippers not delivering -- and, in fact, Europeans have historically performed well over the Santa Anita lawn. Locally, the California-based contingent won’t have the full home advantage of the downhill turf course.
“From a handicapping perspective, I wouldn’t spend too much time worrying about the difference between eastern turf courses and the Santa Anita turf course,” Moss said. “I would look to just focus on your handicapping, who the best horse is.”
Bailey, a Hall of Famer who rode all over the country during his riding career, did note that “Santa Anita has always been more closely mown and a tighter-knit turf course than a lot of east coast courses. Gulfstream Park is an example of an east coast course that is tightly mown and is very similar to Santa Anita.
“Belmont is completely different,” Bailey added. “It’s longer grass and it’s a little more tiring. European courses are much more different. I think that’s why certain trainers and owners send certain horses to the Breeders’ Cup when it’s out here for that specific reason. Their horses will handle that type of course.” NBCSN's coverage of Breeders' Cup Friday begins at 4 p.m. ET. The broadcast of Saturday's races opens at 3:30 p.m. on NBCSN before switching to NBC for the Classic at 8 p.m.
