A US$1 million purse and a win-and-you’re-in spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic are on the line for horses from the older male dirt division in the Grade 1 Jockey Young Gold Cup.
The race is at the heart of the opening day card at the reimagined Belmont Park on Friday. The field features the Japanese record-breaker Forever Young, who will be making his fourth start in America.
Since the draw, the connections of Banishing and Chunk of Gold announced that they would bypass the Gold Cup, leaving a field of five.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Jockey Club Gold Cup with the official track morning-line odds.
1 - BAEZA 9-2. McKinzie – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 12: 2-4-3 – US$2,224,700. Baeza last found the winner’s circle a year ago in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) when he rallied late in a field of 10 to get the lead early in the stretch to defeat Magnitude, who won the Clark (G2) in his next start. Since then, Baeza came out of the gate last each time and for the most part was unprepared to run. That left him with too much to do considering that he faced the best horses in the older male division. With two wins from 12 career starts, it is hard to expect that Baeza will put himself in a better position to win. Like others better.
2 - STARS AND STRIPES 15-1. Not This Time – Bill Mott / John Velazquez – 9: 5-1-1 – $542,033. Stars and Stripes won the Birdstone at Saratoga by a nose with a trip along the rail beating seven rivals going 1 3/4 miles. He also won the Ben Ali (G3) at Keeneland. This will be his first start in a Grade 1, and he is one of the contenders to complete the Gold Cup exacta. Mott won the Jockey Club Gold Cup four times from 1995 to 2022, including the first time with Hall of Fame member Cigar. Use underneath.
3 - CHUNK OF GOLD SCRATCH.
4 - PHILEAS FOGG 4-1. Astern – Gustavo Rodriguez / Kendrick Carmouche – 24: 11-5-1 – $1,170,373. Phileas Fogg has his best outcomes when he gets to set the pace and control the race from the front. In the last two years he won the Suburban (G2) twice, the Excelsior (G3) and an allowance with that running style. Phileas Fogg got to the lead last year in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and finished third but was disqualified and placed seventh for interference during the stretch run. He was claimed at Saratoga in 2024 by Rodriguez for $62,500 and has won seven times since then. Exacta finish likely.
5 - BANISHING SCRATCH
6 - RENDER JUDGMENT 20-1. Blame – Ken McPeek / Manny Franco – 14: 2-5-1 – $408,205. Render Judgment got the second win of his career in a June allowance at Churchill. The son of Blame is most remembered for his five appearances on the road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby. He was distanced in the classic race that featured Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza. Last seen he was second in an allowance at Saratoga and now gets the leading rider from that meet, Manny Franco. Toss.
7 - FOREVER YOUNG 3-5. Real Steel – Yoshito Yahagi / Ryusei Sakai – 15: 11-1-3 – $31,758,590. Forever Young is the all-time leader in earnings for horses who ran in North America. Most of that purse money came from three victories in the richest races in the world: the 2025 and 2026 Saudi Cups (G1) and the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic. He won the Eclipse Award as 2025 champion older dirt male. The last seven races of Forever Young were in Grade or Group 1 stakes where he won six times. Forever Young’s four losses came in the world’s most important races, such as the Kentucky Derby, the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Dubai World Cup (G1). Top pick.
Summary: Forever Young towers over the other four horses, who are expected to run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, in every statistical category. As he makes his fourth start in America, the only question mark for the Japanese star is the nearly six-month layoff since he was second behind Magnitude in the Dubai World Cup in March.
