It is a fact, proven over 150 years ago, that in the first six months of year three, a thoroughbred is still not fully developed. In 1855, the great English handicapper, Admiral Henry John Rous (1795-1885), who was appointed a steward of the Jockey Club in 1838, established a weight-for-age table. This was for handicapping purposes to equalize the form of these youngsters with that of older horses, and it was adjusted each calendar month.
In the United Kingdom and in all other jurisdictions influenced by British racing knowledge, the Classics programming is spread over as many as 8 ½ months. More precisely, in England each flat racing season on grass commences in late March, allowing for the first three months of crucial further growth.
Annually, the English 2000 Guineas and the Derby are staged on the first Saturday of May and June respectively, whilst the St Leger is on the second Saturday in September, to allow for the process of maturing to take full effect.
The result of the August 6 Jamaica Derby underscores this point as highly favoured We Jammin, Salute The Don and Dream Catcher performed like spent forces and will need significant time to heal. Going forward, this debilitating schedule has to be abandoned.
Therefore, the 2019 decision to mimic the American Triple Crown series schedule for the island’s preparation races and Futurities (Classics) has not served the horse population well.
Since then, in US style, these events have been condensed into a five -month window to the detriment of the development of each second-season crop. Incidentally, more and more American trainers have been realizing that Triple Crown pursuit is inimical to the long-term future of the best and capable horses.
In the immediate years before the implementation of this bizarre malaise, the breeders produced all-time great thoroughbreds in the first decade and a half of 21st century.
Consider this list: I’m Satisfied 2000, Awesome Power (01) Simply Magic (02), A King Is Born (03), Distinctly Irish (04), Miracle Man (05), Mark My Word (10), Saint Cecelia (11) Typewrite r(12), Perfect Neighbour (13), Seeking My Dream (15) and She’s A Maneater in 2017. All these rose to the top of my genuine handicap ratings listing!
On the other hand, since 2018, only Mahogany, Atomica and Mojito have made a satisfactory impression in Graded Stakes company as three-year-olds. Since then, too many of the more successful horses at three years either lost ability through lack of development or took an inordinately long time to recuperate. Many of them never fully, from over-raced Classic aspirations in this period as owners are forced to chase prize money.
With the influx of the imported US-bred horses, no locally bred horse can compete successfully in the top category of races currently. Although the data-based analysis of all aspects of horse racing has been available in this column, the important and influential operatives in the industry continue to refuse to accept that the racing product delivered in the complicated claiming system has been inimical to the economic viability of the industry.
For the benefit of those who may not be aware, as pointed out, the horse population is divided into 19 categories when the breed produces only eight. Due to the non-genuine classification of the horse population, inferior horses concede weight to superior ones, creating a disproportionate number of odds-on favourites.
The company offers two types of wagers, win and place, with 13 options, and therefore races with these overwhelming favourities underperform as sales units. There is a misconception in this regard, as the 12 exotics are effectively must-win bets to effect the declaration of dividends.
Since October 25, the regulatory US Jockey Club launched its classification of the horse population, but retained claiming tags to assist owners to have an idea of where their horses are likely to be competitive. The upshot of this is more runners per race, impacting turnover positively. Although it has been published in these pages for the last 12 years, the operatives here have no idea of how this can and needs to be done.
The incessant complaining that the promoting company, Supreme Ventures Racing & Entertainment Ltd (SVREL), now in its tenth year of operation, has failed to deliver what was expected is wholly unjustified. Truth be told, in an environment of widespread knowledge deficit at all levels, SVREL has executed a creditable financial balancing act, facilitated by simulcast, operating with a limited racing product that has no capacity to drive the requisite growth.
