Between them, Todd Pletcher and Brad Cox have seven of the 20 horses and five of the top 10 morning-line choices for Kentucky Derby 2023 at Churchill Downs.
Not that they were completely immune to any trouble in Monday’s post-position draw, but both trainers said the traditional pill pull to randomly assign the gates was not going to affect their strategy for Saturday’s race.
“Not really,” Pletcher said. “I mean our strategy was going to be the same with all three.”
His Eclipse Award winner Forte, a closer who has won four Grade 1 races, drew post 15 in the field of 20 and was made the 3-1 morning-line favorite. Tapit Trice, another off-the-pace horse who won a thrilling renewal of the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), got post 5 and was installed as the 5-1 second choice. Kingsbarns, a stalker who scored in the Louisiana Derby (G2), will start from post 6 with program odds of 12-1.
“If Tapit Trice would have drawn the rail, we were hoping to avoid that,” Pletcher said. “But he’s also 2-for-2 from the 1 hole. It’s one of those things that you hope you don’t get a disadvantage at the draw, but you’re really not going to know for sure how the whole race will pan out until they run it.”
Cox’s top hope Angel of Empire got post 14 and third-choice odds of 8-1. Verifying, who could try to set the early pace, will start from post 2 at 15-1, the same odds as his stablemate Jace’s Road in 12. Hit Show got 30-1 odds after getting stuck with post 1, where no Derby winner has started since Ferdinand in 1986.
Asked if the draw was going to affect his battleplan for Saturday, Cox laughed and said, “I haven’t come up with a strategy yet. I think once you get the post positions and look at the pace, you can start doing some strategizing. The posts may have something to do with our strategy with the horses down on the inside, but ultimately, the jocks are going to break, go forward, and hopefully we can get good trips with all of them.”
The draw should not affect the likelihood of Forte being one of the shortest-priced, post-time favorites in recent years. His odds Sunday night were no longer than plus 275 in Las Vegas, smack dab between 5-2 and 3-1, making him the most lopsided futures favorite for a May running of the Derby since American Pharoah in 2015.
Pletcher has made no secret of being aware of the odds for his horses. Or the expectations for them.
“We’re blessed to be in this position to have three colts of this quality,” he said. “The way they’ve been training leading into it, we’re really excited about it. Now we’re just hoping for everything to continue to go as well as it has. Hopefully we can work out some good trips.”
After the early defection of Blazing Sevens and the fatal training injury suffered by Wild On Ice, 20 of the top 22 points earners were entered in the main draw for the Derby. Three left on the waiting list were made also-eligibles.
Rocket Can and Sun Thunder are adding blinkers for Saturday’s race.
