The US$6 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic is the climax of two fantastic days of racing action at Del Mar this weekend.
In the past, the Classic has heralded champions such as Sunday Silence, Cigar, Curlin and, more recently, American Pharoah. It caused the grandstand to shake when Tiznow “won it for America” in the first major US sporting event back since 9/11, and the Classic has also resulted in stunned silence when Blame held off Zenyatta in 2010, and when French-raider Arcangues won in 1993 paying out $269.20 for a $2 wager in what is still a Breeders’ Cup record.
The mile-and-a-quarter showpiece is always a race to savour and the 38th renewal is no exception, as this year’s field looks the deepest in years.
Nine horses, who have collectively won 47 races, 13 at the highest level, and over US$19 million in prize money are set to take their place in this year’s Classic which is headlined by two previous Breeders’ Cup winners.
Last year’s Juvenile Champion Essential Quality will go head-to-head with his stablemate and reigning Dirt Mile Champion Knicks Go. But these two are not the only class acts as Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit leads a charge of additional last-time-out Grade One winners along with Hot Rod Charlie, Art Collector, and Max Player.
Here’s a runner-by-runner guide.
- TRIPOLI
Age: 4 Trainer: John Sadler. Draw: 1. General odds: 20-1
A son of America’s top turf sire, Kitten’s Joy, Tripoli raced on turf in his first 11 starts, winning twice, but is now two for four on dirt including the Grade One Pacific Classic, over this course and distance, in August, the form of which is questionable. He stalked the pace that day, off reasonable fractions, and put the race to bed early on in the homestretch with a turf-like turn of foot, but in a much slower run Grade One Awesome Again at Santa Anita last time out he failed to fire when fourth behind several of these rivals.
Trainer John Sadler sent out the winner of this race in 2018 with Accelerate for the same owners, but that is his only victory from 52 runners at the Breeders’ Cup series.
Verdict: Was a turf horse, and runs like a turf horse. His course and distance win was in a weakish Grade One.
- EXPRESS TRAIN
Age: 4 Trainer: John Shirreffs. Draw: 2. Odds: 33-1
The Del Mar course specialist in this field having won three of his five starts at the track, including his most recent victory in the Grade Two San Diego Handicap over 1m ½f, in July, when beating Tripoli. Has run over a mile and a quarter three times and has finished weakly on each occasion, including when surrendering a clear lead, at the top of the lane, in the Grade One Santa Anita Handicap in March.
Has run below par in his past two starts, including when he was favourite for the Grade One Pacific Classic at Del Mar in August. Represents the barn of Classic winning trainer John Shirreffs, who sent out Zenyatta for her memorable victory in 2009.
Verdict: Del Mar specialist but looks a solid Grade Two performer at best.
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HOT ROD CHARLIE
Age: 3 Trainer: Doug O’Neill. Draw: 4. Odds: 5-1
Arguably another in this field who is at his best when able to dominate from the front (not the fastest horse early), but he has also run well in defeat from off the pace including when second, at a huge price, to Essential Quality in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Like that rival, he did not enjoy the best of trips when third in the Kentucky Derby before appearing not to quite stay the mile and a half when runner-up, to the same horse, in the Belmont Stakes.
He passed the post in front in the 1m1f Grade One Haskell at Monmouth in July before being disqualified for interference, but he finally gained an overdue success at the top level in the Pennsylvania Derby, again over 1m1f, on his latest start. Hot Rod Charlie made all the running that day to beat a field which were not premier division. He’s the mount of multiple Del Mar Champion Jockey Flavien Prat.
Verdict: Seen the backside of some of these too often already.
- ESSENTIAL QUALITY
Age: 3 Trainer: Brad Cox. Draw: 4. Odds: 3-1
A brilliant grey son of Tapit who has won eight of his nine career starts. His only defeat came when a close fourth, after a troubled trip, in the Grade One Kentucky Derby at the start of May. He capped an unbeaten two-year-old campaign with a deep-closing victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland last October.
Since his Derby defeat, he has gone on to stake his claim as America’s leading three-year-old, completing a hat-trick in the Grade One Belmont, Grade Two Jim Dandy, and the Grade One Travers over this trip at Saratoga. He usually stalks the pace and can often run a little lazily in the early stages (hence the blinkers sported throughout his career), but he possesses a ravenous appetite for passing horses in the stretch.
The amount of early speed in this race should set things up ideally for him and he gives Godolphin prospects of an elusive first Breeders’ Cup Classic success.
Verdict: His run style should be ideal, and I love his late stretch surge. The one to beat.
- KNICKS GO
Age: 5 Trainer: Brad Cox. Draw: 5. Odds: 9-4 fav
An older stablemate of Essential Quality who also won at this Breeders’ Cup 12 months ago when impressively taking the Dirt Mile in track record time. He was far from a winning machine earlier in his career, when winning only two of his first 14 starts (albeit one was at Grade One level when sent off at 70-1), but has become a front-running monster since joining Brad Cox at the beginning of 2020, scoring seven times in nine starts.
The son of Paynter began this year with victory in the Grade One Pegasus World Cup Invitational, and arrives on the back of three successive wins – including the Whitney at Saratoga and, most recently, the Grade Three Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs. Knicks Go suffered defeats when fourth in both the Saudi Cup and the Met Mile at Belmont, but both of those races were run around only one turn, a configuration which his trainer says does not suit him.
The concerns are that he has never raced beyond 1m1f - his breeding does not fill you with confidence that he will stay – and he has never passed a horse to win a race. And at best he is only the equal fastest horse through the early stages of a race, equal to Medina Spirit. The feeling is he may get hooked up in an epic speed duel, in order to get the lead, and then not get home over this distance.
Verdict: Brilliant front-running miler but this is over a quarter of a mile further. And will he be able to lead?
- ART COLLECTOR
Age: 4 Trainer: Bill Mott. Draw: 6. Odds: 11-1
One of several confirmed front-runners in the race (but certainly not the quickest) he comes here in the form of his life having completed a 1m1f hat-trick, with a personal best performance, in the Grade One Woodward at Belmont last time out. A well beaten eighth, behind Knicks Go, in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Keeneland last year, he will be stepping up to 1m2f for the first time here.
While he has been finishing out his races strongly it has been against weaker opposition and even the Woodward was not a particularly strong Grade One this year. His regular rider this season, Luis Saez, jumps ships to get back aboard Essential Quality. His veteran trainer Bill Mott has won this race twice, in 1995 with the great Cigar, and in 2011 when Drosselmeyer pulled off a shock at Churchill Downs.
Verdict: Respect for his trainer says maybe, the formbook says no.
- STILLETO BOY
Age: 3 Trainer: Ed Moger Jr. Draw: 7. Odds: 40-1
Will be a first ever Breeders’ Cup runner for long standing So-Cal based Ed Moger Jr. Stilleto Boy has won only two of his ten starts, both over 1m ½f, most recently the Listed Iowa Derby at Prairie Meadow in July. Finished third behind Medina Spirit in the Listed Shared Belief over a mile at Del Mar on his penultimate start before trying Grade One company for the first time in the 1m1f Awesome Again at Santa Anita in early October when finishing five lengths second to Medina Spirit at odds of 55-1. He made all of the running in both of his wins, but also has closed to some effect in his races. Howeverm this distance is likely to be a stretch for the son of Shackleford and it is difficult to see him getting involved.
Verdict: So-Cal trained outsider owning just two ungraded wins. Outclassed.
- MEDINA SPIRIT
Age: 3 Trainer: Bob Baffert. Draw: 8. Odds: 6-1
Although his Kentucky Derby win in May is still under investigation the official stats, as they stand at present, give him a five for nine career record and he has legitimate claims to give Bob Baffert his fifth win in the Classic in the past seven years, all successes achieved by three-year-olds. Medina Spirit’s front-running victory in the Derby seemed to take even his trainer by surprise given he was not expected to stay a mile and a quarter (he had not been a Baffert leading light going into the race and only became a super sub for sidelined stablemates).
Two weeks, the son of Protonico tried to make all again in the Grade One Preakness but folded tamely to finish only third, and was subsequently given a three-month break. He returned with a sizzling front-running performance to win the Listed Shared Belief Stakes over one mile at Del Mar, and then romped to a five-length success in the 1m1f Grade One Awesome Again at Santa Anita in early October. He has made all to score in four of his five victories (he did officially pass two horses early in his maiden breaker), but he does appear to be rather one-dimensional and his early pace is worryingly similar to that of Knicks Go. This will also be his ninth race of the year.
Verdict: The front-running Derby winner may get softened up early here.
- MAX PLAYER
Age: 4 Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Draw: 9. Odds: 9-1
Steve Asmussen, now the winning-most thoroughbred trainer in North American racing history, relies on this four-year-old to give him his third Breeders’ Cup Classic after Curlin in 2007 and Gun Runner a decade later. Max Player only won once last year, but ran creditably in all three legs of the Triple Crown, before a fruitless trip to the Saudi Cup, a race in which he never got competitive.
Reverting to a mile and a quarter, for the first time since last year’s Derby, has been the making of him as he’s won his past two races over the trip in the Grade Two Suburban at Belmont and the Grade One Jockey Club Gold Cup by four lengths at Saratoga. There is little doubt that this son of Honor Code will be towards the back early, but he is an out-and-out stayer who will be keeping on at the finish. The issue is that he does not have much early speed (he was able to lay up in his last two races as they were run at a crawl) and, in a race that could be run through eye-popping early fractions, will he be able to lay up close enough to be able to land a blow down the comparatively short stretch?
Verdict: Distance “check”, trainer “check” form “OK”. Definite place claims.
CONCLUSION
It has been ten years since a reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner has contested the following year’s Classic, when Uncle Mo finished a distant tenth in 2011, as most two-year-old champions have already been retired or did not train on.
This is not the case with ESSENTIAL QUALITY, who only seems to be getting better as he gets older. This son of Tapit checks all the right boxes: he will see out the trip, he is tractable from a positioning perspective, and he should get an ideal pace scenario set up.
MAX PLAYER and MEDINA SPIRIT rate the main dangers. Max Player, a bigger-priced runner, should get involved for the minor placings as he will be charging late, and like the selection, there is no doubt about his stamina. Medina Spirit, who has handed the selection his lone defeat in the Kentucky Derby, may have use a lot of petrol early on in the race if dueling with Knicks Go, especially from a wide draw, and therefore may not be able to hold off Essential Quality’s late charge.
Knicks Go is the ante-post and morning line favourite for a reason as he has looked invincible in his last couple of starts, but he needs the lead and there is no Plan B, and the other horses in this race will not give him the same lead that previous rivals have. He could certainly win, and the race could be an awe-inspiring watch of sheer equine domination, but at the price there are a lot of question marks and one thing jockey Luis Saez will not do is allow Essential Quality to get too far behind his stablemate early on.
1 #4 Essential Quality. 2 #9 Max Player # 8 Medina Spirit
