The analysis of the final ten starters in the 2022 Kentucky Derby is published below. Please note all figures are in United States dollars.
- Pioneer of Medina(30-1 – 25 – 3rd, Louisiana Derby – Pioneerof the Nile – Todd Pletcher/ Joe Bravo – 6: 2-1-2 - $181,350) Trainer Todd Pletcher sent Pioneer of Medina to Fair Grounds to try to qualify for the Derby, and he ran into very tough competition while racing in the longest prep races. The fourth in the Risen Star (G2) and the third in the Louisiana Derby gave him just enough points to secure the final spot in the field. Pioneer of Medina is yet another of these 3-year-olds who prefer to run forwardly placed, and there isn’t room for all of them. Toss.
- Taiba(12-1 – 100 – 1st, Santa Anita Derby – 103 – Gun Runner – Tim Yakteen / Mike Smith – 2: 2-0-0 - $490,200) In only his second career start, Taiba sat behind the pace and then passed the favorites to win the 100-point Santa Anita Derby. With two-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Mike Smith in the saddle, Taiba has the traits of past Derby winners from California. His detractors will note his lack of experience and the fact that he beat a field of seven and then six in his only two starts. Win contender.
- Simplification(20-1 – 74 – 3rd, Florida Derby – 96 – Not This Time – Antonio Sano / Jose Ortiz – 7: 3-1-2 - $515,350) Simplification found success racing from a stalking position and from the front end. In the Florida Derby he dueled for the lead and got there, but then he was caught nearing the wire. His best race was in the Fountain of Youth (G2) when he sat in a stalking position and then rallied wide for the win. His tactical speed will help him to secure a safe, early position in the Derby. Live long shot.
- Barber Road(30-1 – 58 – 2nd, Arkansas Derby (G1) – 88 – Race Day – John Ortiz / Reylu Gutierrez – 8: 2-4-1 - $650,720) Barber Road ran in all four of the Derby preps at Oaklawn Park, getting points in all of them. He has earned a lot of money with his competitive late stretch runs, but those races will be a far cry from the big field in the Run for the Roses. His last win was in November at Churchill in a starter allowance. Superfecta finish possible.
15. White Abarrio (10-1 – 112 – 1st, Florida Derby – 97 – Race Day – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Tyler Gaffalione – 5: 4-0-1 - $823,650) White Abarrio won four times at Gulfstream Park, including two races on the Derby trail. In the 100-point Florida Derby, he sat a couple of lengths behind the pacesetter and took control of the race at the stretch call and increased his advantage from there. White Abarrio has the right running style for success in the Derby. Critics will note that his lone loss came at Churchill Downs, but he did not have an ideal trip in his first try in a stakes race. He has the right resume for Derby success. Use underneath.
- Cyberknife(20-1 – 100 – 1st, Arkansas Derby – 92 – Gun Runner - Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 6: 3-2-0 - $860,000) Cyberknife burst on the Derby scene when he closed to win the 100-point Arkansas Derby. Trainer Brad Cox has talked about how this son of Gun Runner has tons of talent but is mentally immature. The Arkansas Derby field was not as good as in recent years. Facing a field of 20 and a crowd of 150,000 people might not be an ideal setting for Cyberknife, but he is Brad Cox’s top Derby horse. That makes it hard to not expect him to show his best. Hard to ignore.
- Classic Causeway(30-1 – 66 – 11th, Florida Derby – 90 - Giant’s Causeway – Brian Lynch / Julien Leparoux – 6: 3-1-1 - $521,100) Classic Causeway returned to the Derby field when the owners decided they wanted to run in the big race. He dominated the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and the Sam F. Davis (G3) but then faded badly in the Florida Derby after setting the pace. Toss.
- Tawny Port(30-1 – 60 – 1st, Lexington (G3) – 90 – Pioneerof the Nile – Brad Cox / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 5: 3-1-0 - $427,000) Tawny Port locked up his place in the Derby when he won the Lexington at Keeneland with a late rally. That win on the dirt also confirmed that he is more than a Tapeta specialist since his prior best efforts were at Turfway Park. The Run for the Roses will be his third start in a month, but Cox certainly has this guy in fine form. Use underneath.
- Zozos(20-1 – 40 – 2nd, Louisiana Derby – 98 – Munnings – Brad Cox / Manny Franco – 3: 2-1-0 - $291,200) Running second in the Louisiana Derby behind Epicenter in only his third start was certainly a noteworthy performance for Zozos, especially after setting the pace in that 1 3/16-mile race. He prefers to press the pace and already has shown the ability to handle distance. You just cannot discount a horse like this from the Brad Cox barn. Use underneath.
- Ethereal Road(30-1 – 22 – 4th, Lexington – 83 – Quality Road – D. Wayne Lukas / Luis Contreras – 7: 1-1-1 - $294,545) Trainer D. Wayne Lukas got his 50th Derby runner when Ethereal Road became the last horse to get into the field. The son of Quality Road had the lead in the stretch of the Rebel but was run down by long shot Un Ojo. His subsequent two starts were not up to that level, with a fourth in the Lexington and a seventh in the Blue Grass. The Derby will be the third start in less than a month for Ethereal Road, who just has not run fast enough to be a contender. Toss.
