A look at the runners in the world’s richest race – the Saudi Cup worth US$20 million

The US$20 million Saudi will be run in Saudi Arabia on Saturday next (February 20, 2021). Below is a look at the runners and possible betting options.

Narrowing down the 2021 Saudi Cup to either Knicks Go or Charlatan feels too limiting considering the talent of both horses. Even though Charlatan drew a great post to set himself up for sitting off Knicks Go, a poor break could throw a wrench into those plans and leave Knicks Go alone.

Either Knicks Go or Charlatan can win. With that in mind, the play in this post is a backwheel key, which in most cases puts the focus on a reliable closer who could pick up the pieces for a minor placing. On paper, that reliable closer is the well-known Tacitus.

Tacitus exits a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

He waited behind Tiz the Law and Maximum Security on the turn before out finishing them in the stretch.

Tacitus arguably showed heart to complete the superfecta.

For the effort, Tacitus earned a 124 Timeform US Speed Figure, which is still five points higher than Sleepy Eyes Todd’s 119 for his fourth in the Pegasus World Cup and 11 points higher than Max Player’s 111 for his fifth in the Preakness Stakes. In fairness, Max Player was only a 3-year-old in the Preakness.

Either Sleepy Eyes Todd or Max Player could pop forward with a big effort to reach second or third, but neither of them are completely reliable. Sleepy Eyes Todd’s late run appears a bit stronger in one-turn races, while Max Player makes his first run since October and faces older horses now.

Although Sleepy Eyes Todd was fourth in the Pegasus World Cup, he did not give a great impression visually and only beat the fifth-place Code of Honor by less than a length. Max Player repeatedly picked up minor checks against the best 3-year-old horses, but he never looked like a real threat.

Tacitus has run against older horses since the 2019 Jockey Club Gold Cup. He ran fifth in the 2021 Saudi Cup, but he was behind nice horses in Maximum Security (back when Jason Servis trained him), Midnight Bisou, Benbatl and Mucho Gusto.

Knicks Go and Charlatan are talented runners in the prime of their careers. Even with their presence, this edition of the Saudi Cup lacks depth beyond those two powerhouses, making this a weaker edition than 2020.

CAN ANY OTHER HORSES CONTEND? 

In the overseas pools, Mishriff is attracting money despite an eighth-place finish in the Champion Stakes (G1) in his last start. He ran second to Full Flat in the Saudi Derby last year, but Full Flat did not back up the effort with a sixth in the Unicorn Cup (G3) in Tokyo and dismal 12^th in the Japan Dirt Derby in his next two starts.

Military Law is taking some money as well. He won Al Maktoum Challenge Round 1 (G1) at Meydan last month by 1 ¼ lengths over Thegreatcollection, who was then second in Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2). Those Dubai World Cup prep races are typically weak though.

What about Chuwa Wizard? He took the Champions Cup (G1) in Japan by 2 ½ lengths over Gold Dream in Japan two months ago. Gold Dream was sixth in the Saudi Cup last year, beaten by only 5 ½ lengths. Okay, that is a respectable note. However, Tacitus beat Gold Dream in that race as well, although by only a length.

Tacitus is the right horse to backwheel key in second or third. He is not the best horse in the race, but he looks like the most reliable one to find his way into the mix and owns important course experience.

In case either Knicks Go or Charlatan throws a bad race, the second slot is more open ended and might end up as a minor surprise. Max Player and Sleepy Eyes Todd are the obvious ones to add to the slot as Americans, while Chuwa Wizard appears best out of the international contenders.

What if Tacitus finishes second? Just make another backwheel ticket and reverse the second and third slots. Players could even throw in Mishriff and Military Law in the third slot as it becomes more open ended down there.