#2025 Kentucky Derby: The Draw, The Analysis

The field for Kentucky Derby 2025 was drawn between races on Saturday night at Churchill Downs, where Journalism was named the 3-1 morning line favourite and drew post position 8.

A fast and contentious pace is expected in this year’s run for the roses with seven horses who ran their best Derby trail races on the front end. Trainer Bob Baffert is back for the first time since Medina Spirit was disqualified from his pace-setting victory in 2021. Baffert has two in this year’s field, and both won Derby preps after racing on the lead.

Here is the full-field pace analysis for the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby with the official track morning-line odds, sires, trainers, jockeys, lifetime records and earnings. The Derby is scheduled as race 12 of 14 with post time set for Saturday at 6:57 p.m. EDT.

1. Citizen Bull, 20-1. Into Mischief – Bob Baffert / Martin Garcia – 6: 4-1-0, $1,451,000. Citizen Bull made four starts on the Derby trail going back to 2024 when he won the American Pharoah (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to secure the 2-year-old male-division championship. He came back this year in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) with another front-end victory and then faded badly to fourth in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Speed.
2. Neoequous, 30-1. Neolithic – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Flavien Prat (2) - 7: 2-2-2, $291,050. Neoequos was prominently placed in all his races beginning with five starts at Gulfstream that included two in Florida stallion-series stakes. On the Derby trail he got to the lead and ended up third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1). Speed.
3. Final Gambit, 30-1. Not This Time – Brad Cox / Luan Machado - 4: 2-1-1, $520,639. Final Gambit dropped back to last in large fields in three of his races. He made winning rallies in his last two starts in a maiden and the Jeff Ruby (G3) on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. Deep closer.
4. Rodriquez, 12-1. Authentic – Bob Baffert / Mike Smith – 5: 2-2-1, $522,800. Rodriguez went to the lead in the Wood Memorial (G2) and led every step of the way to an easy win. Baffert used speed as a weapon in the Kentucky Derby picking up victories with Rodriguez’s father Authentic and War Emblem. Speed.
5. American Promise, 30-1. Justify – D. Wayne Lukas / Nik Juarez - 9: 2-1-1, $444,874. American Promise is the most experienced horse in the field with nine starts. His best performances were when he was part of the early pace. American Promise had a career best effort to win the Virginia Derby by almost eight-lengths when he took the lead after six-furlongs. Speed.
6. Admire Daytona, 30-1. Drefong – Yukihiro Kato / Christophe Lemaire - 6: 2-2-0, $672,047. Admire Daytona qualified for the Derby with a nose victory in the UAE Derby (G2) after racing on the lead. The track at Meydan often favors front-end winners that get a spot in the first leg of the Triple Crown. Speed.
7. Luxor Cafe’ 15-1. American Pharoah – Noriyuki Hori / Joao Moreira - 6: 4-1-0, $379,057. Luxor Café won his last four starts which were in Japan. His most impressive victory was at the end of March in the Fukuryu where he made a visually impressive move on the outside with a stalking trip to easily take the lead and drew off to a five-length margin in the nine-furlong Derby prep. Stalker.
8. Journalism, 3-1. Curlin – Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli - 5: 4-0-1, $638,880. Journalism won his last four races moving from a maiden to three victories on the Derby trail. In those stakes wins Umberto Rispoli sat confidently a few lengths behind the leader, took control of the races mid-stretch and was a clear winner. Stalker.
9. Burnham Square, 12-1. Liam’s Map – Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez Jr. - 6: 3-1-1, $977,755. Burnham Square rallied from seventh and last in the Blue Grass (G1) to win by a nose. He also used a closing move in his other two victories which were at Gulfstream in the Holy Bull (G3) and a maiden. Closer.
10. Grande, 20-1. Curlin – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez - 3: 2-1-0, $228,200. Grande won his first two starts at Gulfstream during the winter going a mile and then another furlong after pressing the pace. In the Wood Memorial (G2) he rallied from farther back in seventh to a second-place finish that got him eligible for the Derby. Stalker.
11. Flying Mohawk, 30-1. Karakontie – Whit Beckman / Joe Ramos - 6: 2-2-0, $295,800. Flying Mohawk was more forwardly placed in races on the turf to end his 2-year-old campaign. This year he got behind in the early going and rallied to victory in an allowance and then got to second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). Closer.
12. East Avenue, 20-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Brendan Walsh / Manny Franco - 5: 2-1-0, $654,395. East Avenue was a winner on the Derby trail as a 2-year-old in his second start in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) with a front-running score. He showed some speed in the Risen Star (G2) to start 2025 but faded to 10th. He bounced back in the Blue Grass and was second by a nose after setting the pace. Speed.
13. Publisher, 20-1. American Pharoah – Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz Jr. - 7: 0-2-3, $407,756. Publisher is still a maiden after seven starts for Steve Asmussen. He was fourth in the Rebel (G2) and second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) after getting behind 16 lengths. The blinkers went on and helped this son of American Pharoah run the best race of his career in that prep race. Deep closer.
14. Tiztastic, 20-1. Tiz the Law – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario - 8: 3-1-2, $1,549,800. Tiztastic appreciated the longest distance on the Derby trail in the Louisiana Derby (G2) where he was able to show off his closing move. He rallied from ninth where he was nine lengths behind, got to the lead at the stretch call and drew off to win by more than two lengths while others were tiring. Closer.
15. Render Judgment,30-1. Blame – Ken McPeek / Julien Leparoux - 7: 1-2-1, $250,672. Render Judgment was a late addition to the Derby field when the connections changed their minds and opted to join the run for the roses when a spot in the field opened. In his seven starts the only time that he got to the lead was at the end of his maiden victory in October. Closer.
16. Coal Battle, 30-1. Coal Front – Lonnie Briley / Juan Vargas - 8: 5-0-1, $1,188,875. Coal Battle showed versatility in his five victories with a win on the front-end in the Smarty Jones and come from behind efforts in the Springboard Mile and the Rebel. Closer.
17. Sandman, 6-1. Tapit – Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz - 8: 3-1-2, $1,254,595. Sandman got far behind by 13 lengths in the early going of his two most recent starts. Deep closers are dependent on a fast past and tiring horses to rally successfully, and Sandman got that to win the Arkansas Derby. He should get the fast pace on Saturday but also is likely to get very far behind. Deep closer.
18. Sovereignty, 5-1. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado - 5: 2-2-0, $572,800. Sovereignty raced from the back of the field in his three starts on the Derby trail whether that put him in eighth, ninth or fifth position in the early going. Each time he rallied wide and clear to victory twice or last time to get second in the Florida Derby. Closer.
19. Chunk of Gold, 30-1. Preservationist – Ethan West / Jareth Loveberry - 4: 1-3-0, $348,818. Chunk of Gold heads into Saturday with three second-place finishes in a row after dropping towards the back of the field each time. In January it was in a stakes race at Turfway and then on the Derby trail in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. Closer.
20. Owen Almighty , 30-1. Speightstown – Brian Lynch / Javier Castellano - 7: 3-2-0, $499,935. Owen Almighty won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) by a clear margin after leading every step of the way. In the Blue Grass he was unable to get to the lead and faded to sixth. Javier Castellano gets the mount after the Ortiz brothers opted for other horses. Speed.

21, also eligible. Baeza, 12-1. McKinzie – John Shirreffs / Flavien Prat (1) – 4: 1-2-0, $148,500. Stalker.

Summary: During the points era, which began in 2013, there were four Kentucky Derby winners that rallied from far back to win. They were Orb in 2013 and the past three years with Mystik Dan, Mage and Rich Strike. The other eight were either frontrunners or stalkers, and none of them was ever farther back than third place.

Looking at the field for this year’s Derby there are seven horses who won when they used their speed to get to the lead. The rest prefer to come from behind with two stalkers, eight closers and three deep closers.

A fast and contested early pace gives the late runners the advantage. Expect the Derby winner to pass tiring horses at the end of the 10-furlong classic distance for the fourth year in a row.