#US RACING: AFTER THE DRAW – THE ANALYSIS OF THE FIRST 10 IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY

The analysis of the first ten starters in the 2022 Kentucky Derby is provided below. Please note all figures are in United States dollars.

1. Mo Donegal(10-1 – 112 – 1st, Wood Memorial (G2) – 96 – Uncle Mo – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz, Jr. – 5: 3-0-2 - $621,800) Mo Donegal closed from last in the 100-point Wood Memorial at Aqueduct to run down the pacesetter. All three of his wins were at New York tracks with a third-place finish in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park mixed in there. In most of his starts he got away from the gate slowly, which in the Derby means that he will get far behind in the early going and will require lots of racing luck to work out an uneventful trip. Win contender.

2. Happy Jack(30-1 – 30 – 3rd, Santa Anita Derby (G1) – 90 – Oxbow – Doug O’Neill / Rafael Bejarano – 4: 1-0-2 - $182,200) Happy Jack was a debut winner for the West Coast division of Calumet Farm in January at Santa Anita. He picked up Derby points with a pair of thirds on the Derby trail in those small fields in the San Felipe (G2) and the Santa Anita Derby. Toss.

3. Epicenter(7-2 – 164 - 1st, Louisiana Derby (G2) – 102 – Not This Time – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 6: 4-1-0 - $1,010,639) Epicenter gives Steve Asmussen, the winningest trainer in Thoroughbred racing, a chance to finally win the Kentucky Derby. Epicenter used tactical speed to get a victory in the 100-point Louisiana Derby, which gives him the most important characteristics of a winner on the first Saturday in May. The one to beat.

4. Summer Is Tomorrow(30-1 – 40 – 2nd, UAE Derby (G2) – N/A – Summer Front – Bhupat Seemar / Mickael Barzalona – 7: 2-3-0 - $267,606) Summer Is Tomorrow picked up his 40 points with a second in the UAE Derby. He will make his first start in America in the Kentucky Derby. That is a tough task. Toss.

5. Smile Happy(20-1 – 70 – 2nd, Blue Grass (G1) – 94 – Runhappy – Kenny McPeek / Corey Lanerie – 4: 2-2-0 - $549,810) In the Blue Grass, Smile Happy stayed closer to the pace than usual and was able to get the lead in the stretch at Keeneland. He looked like a winner at that point, but he could not hold off the late run by Zandon. Smile Happy looked washed out in the post parade for that race, and he has continued to look that way during Derby training in cool mornings at Churchill. Horses need to be at 100 percent to be competitive in the Derby. Toss.

   6. Messier (8-1 – 40 – 2nd, Santa Anita Derby (G1) – 103 – Empire Maker – Tim Yakteen / John Velazquez – 6: 3-3-0 - $435,600) Messier finished first or second in all six of his starts, including the Santa Anita Derby. In all of those races, he was part of the pace, either pressing the leader or stalking just a few lengths from behind the front. He was run down by Taiba last out after getting the lead in the stretch. Messier never ran in a field larger than six, so his success depends on his securing a position near the front in the early going. The 10-furlong distance will not be a problem for the son of Empire Maker, and he has the look of a Derby horse that could carve out 24-second quarters for the entire race and the might be enough to find the winner’s circle.  Top choice.

7. Crown Pride(20-1 – 100 – 1st, UAE Derby – N/A – Reach the Crown (JPN) – Shintani Koichi / Christophe Lemaire – 4: 3-0-0 - $734,569) Historically, the winners of the 100-point UAE Derby have not found success on the first Saturday in May. To his credit, Japanese runners have recently been impactful on big stages such as the Breeders’ Cup on turf and dirt. Still, I was burned too many times in the Derby by the horse coming from the UAE points race. Toss.

8. Charge It(20-1 – 40 – 2nd, Florida Derby (G1) – 93 – Tapit – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez  – 3: 1-2-0 - $230,400) The lightly raced grey colt picked up his qualifying points when he finished second in the Florida Derby from a stalking position after racing greenly down the stretch while not being able to keep a straight path. As a promising Todd Pletcher trainee, Charge It is likely to attract more than his share of attention at the betting windows. The 20-horse field of the Derby is not an ideal spot for a horse that might be lacking in needed racing experience. Toss.

9. Tiz the Bomb(30-1 – 110 – 1st, Jeff Ruby (G3) – 94 – Hit It a Bomb – Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez, Jr. – 8: 5-1-0 - $1,044,401) Heading into 2022, Tiz the Bomb was not the McPeek 3-year-old who was expected to win a 100-point race on the Derby trail, but he did it in the Jeff Ruby on the Tapeta at Turfway Park. Tiz the Bomb has wins on dirt, turf and synthetic. He also was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. That makes him the leading money winner in the field on the first Saturday in May. I have seen his name mentioned as a contender in a lot of pre-Kentucky Derby chatter. Live long shot.

10. Zandon(3-1 – 114 – 1st, Blue Grass – 98 – Upstart – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 4: 2-1-1 - $713,000) Zandon got a 100-point victory in the Blue Grass when he rallied from last in an 11-horse field and drew off to win by more than two lengths. In his other two Derby preps, he had less than ideal trips and finished second and third. Chad Brown, who has four Eclipse Awards for outstanding trainer, also looks for his first Derby win. Zandon will need to buck the current trend of Derby winners pressing the pace and get an ideal trip while trying to rally from behind. He will get lots of support from the betting public. Win contender.