The Kentucky Derby is tough to win, with a huge field of stampeding horses and 150,000 screaming fans in the stands. Toss in a rainy forecast that could turn the Churchill Downs dirt strip into something resembling peanut butter and it gets trickier.
A field of 19 3-year-olds is set to run 1 1/4 miles for a $3.1 million prize and the garland of red roses on Saturday. Mucking things up is a forecast of 65 degrees (18 degrees Celsius) with a 90% chance of rain.
The soggy weather isn't just a bummer for those wanting the fairest of track conditions. The Derby is also a big party and fashion show, and rain means pulling out ponchos — no umbrellas allowed — to protect the huge hats and floral dresses.
Thirteen of the Derby contenders — including early 3-1 favorite Journalism — have never raced on a wet track. Clods of flying mud hitting their faces could be a turnoff.
"I may go through three pairs of goggles," said Brian Hernandez Jr., who will be aboard Burnham Square.
Six longshots have experience in the muck, with four winning. Coal Battle is 2 for 2, while Japan-based Luxor Cafe is 3 for 4. The others are Neoequos and American Promise, trained by 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas.
The last Derby run on a sloppy track was in 2019, when Country House won via a disqualification that had nothing to do with the weather. The last muddy track was in 1989, when Sunday Silence won.
Trainer Bob Baffert goes for a record-setting seventh victory in his return from a three-year suspension. He'll saddle Citizen Bull, last year's 2-year-old champion. The colt breaks from the dreaded No. 1 post, leaving him little choice but to get to the front before the rest of the field comes over, potentially cutting him off.
"We're going to tell him to get out of there like he just robbed a bank," Baffert said.
No horse has won from the No. 1 post since Ferdinand in 1986.
Baffert's other horse, Rodriguez, was scratched Thursday with a bruised foot, moving Baeza into the field. Trainer Todd Pletcher's only entry, Grande, was scratched Friday for the same reason.
Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen tries to snap an 0 for 26 Derby losing streak with a pair of 20-1 shots: Publisher and Tiztastic. Both are next to each other in the starting gate.
Sovereignty, the early 5-1 second choice, won at Churchill Downs last fall. He'll try to snap an 0 for 13 Derby skid for Godolphin, the racing stable of Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.
"I know he loves this track," jockey Junior Alvarado said, "so I'm sitting on a good run with him now."
Sandman, the early 6-1 third choice, is the most expensive horse in the field at $1.2 million. Conversely, 30-1 shot Chunk of Gold was bought for $2,500.
"There's been a lot of expensive horses not pan out and there's been a lot of cheap ones that have panned out," Chunk of Gold trainer Ethan West said. "It's not like he's a big, robust, grand-looking animal. He's very good-looking, but he doesn't look like Journalism, that's for sure."
Journalism looked the part of the Derby favorite while training during a mostly rain-free week on the track and breaks from the No. 8 post.
"The history of the Derby is usually a pretty vibrant opening quarter-mile," trainer Michael McCarthy said. "He'll be part of that, probably just back off the speed."
The Southern California-based colt's mother's name is Mopotism and wanting a name ending in "ism," co-owner Aron Wellman took inspiration from his old gig as sports editor of the Beverly Hills High School newspaper.
"Now more than ever, in the climate that we're living in, journalists and responsible journalism is so important," he said. "It's so poignant that a horse named Journalism is going to have all eyes on him."
