Kentucky Derby points to be earned by top four
1. Grantham (20-1 – Declaration of War – Mike Maker / Samy Camacho – 3: 1-1-0 - $76,200) Grantham made his 2022 debut on the Derby trail after a maiden victory in his second start at the end of last year. In the Withers (G3), he was no better than third the entire race and finished fourth. The Withers had a good field with Early Voting in first and second was Un Ojo, the eventual winner of the Rebel (G2).
2. Trademark (30-1 – Upstart – Vickie Oliver / Daniel Centeno – 5: 2-1-0 - $143,294) Trademark won a restricted maiden special weight at Churchill in October in his third start, which was followed by another front-end victory in an allowance under the Twin Spires to end his 2-year-old campaign. He finished last in the Sam F. Davis (G3) in his seasonal debut at odds of 27-1. Toss.
3. Happy Boy Rocket (12-1 – Runhappy– Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 2: 1-0-1 - $37,100) This son of Runhappy broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park in his second try when he stretched out to two-turns and drew off to win by almost three-lengths for Bill Mott. The connections will take a shot to see if this guy belongs on the Derby trail. Live longshot.
4. Classic Causeway (9-5 – Giant’s Causeway – Brian Lynch / Irad Ortiz, Jr. – 4: 2-1-1 - $301,100) Classic Causeway won his 2022 debut in a Kentucky Derby prep race which is something that very few contenders have done. His 2-year-old campaign was full of promise after his maiden victory at Saratoga. The Brian Lynch runner then faced two of the strongest fields in Kentucky stakes last year. Classic Causeway was the favorite in both of those races and in the Sam F. Davis where he drew off to win by almost four lengths after setting the pace right out of the gate. Top Choice.
5. Giant Game (12-1 – Giant’s Causeway – Dale Romans / Joe Talamo – 4: 1-0-2 - $244,900) Giant Game showed promise as a 2-year-old with an impressive maiden score at Keeneland in October followed by a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar. He made his 2022 in the Holy Bull (G3) where he contended the pace for six-furlongs but then stopped running to end up with a distant finish in eighth at 4-1. Dale Romans will need to have last year’s version of Giant Game ready to run to have a chance to get some more Derby points. Hard to know what to expect from him. Toss.
6. Golden Glider (20-1 – Ghostzapper – Mark Casse / Antonio Gallardo – 3: 2-0-0 - $55,372) Golden Glider won his first two starts and then was a non-threatening fifth in the Sam F. Davis. He will have to show a lot more in this field to be considered a contender to win. Toss.
7. Strike Hard (15-1 – Flashback – Matthew Williams / Luis Saez – 7: 2-2-1 - $115,600) Strike Hard has a pair of interesting performances this year beginning with a second-place in the Mucho Macho Man behind the recent Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Simplification followed by a fourth in the Sam F. Davis. In the Davis, Strike Hard dropped far back to last and then had to rally wide. Both of his victories happened at Gulfstream. Use Underneath.
8. Major General (9-2 – Constitution – Todd Pletcher / Javier Castellano – 2: 2-0-0 - $232,525) It has not been a winning profile this year when unbeaten 2-year-olds have tried to make their 3-year-old debuts on the Derby trail after a long layoff. Major General won a Saratoga maiden and then the Iroquois (G3) for Todd Pletcher. He’s training well, but even Todd Pletcher has had trouble winning a Derby trail after almost six months off. Use underneath.
9. Shipsational (6-1 – Midshipman – Eddie Barker / Manny Franco – 5: 3-1-0 - $318,750) Shipsational made his 2022 debut in the Sam F. Davis after ending his 2-year-old campaign with a pair of New York-bred stakes victories at Belmont Park. At odds of 7-1, he closed on the outside from eighth-place to finish second. He stayed in Florida to train for the Tampa Derby. Use underneath.
10. Belgrade (12-1 – Hard Spun – H. Graham Motion / Hector Diaz, Jr. – 2: 2-0-0 - $35,400) Belgrade is unbeaten after two starts – a maiden score by six lengths at Fair Grounds and then an allowance at Tampa by a head. The Graham Motion trainee was the odds-on favorite both times and won with a stalking trip both times. Belgrade will have to go two-turns for the first time on the Derby trail. Live longshot.
11. Money Supply (6-1 – Practical Joke - Chad Brown / Jose Ortiz – 1: 1-0-0 - $15,340) Money Supply broke his maiden in his first try at Tampa last month with a closing move from 11-lengths behind to win by two lengths going six-furlongs in a fast time of 1:09.71. The $400,000 yearling purchase was the favorite in that field of nine. Money Supply was a late addition to the list of probables for this field. He will be an underlay as are most Chad Brown winners. Use underneath.
12. Spin Wheel (30-1 – Hard Spun – Rusty Arnold / Jesus Castanon – 4: 1-0-0 - $77,160) Spin Wheel needed three starts to get his first win in a nine-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs in November with a run from 10th to get the victory by a nose. They brought him back in the Holy Bull where he finished sixth without getting into contention. With improvement, he could pass tired horses. Toss.
Summary: Heading into the Sam F. Davis, Classic Causeway had a significant class and performance advantage over the rest of the field and that showed when he won by four lengths. With that victory, he did what many other Derby prospects have failed to do which was to win his first start of the year in a Derby trail race.
